Decisions by Design | Edition 22

Sense Making. The Precursor to Sound Decision Making. AKA The Emu Story 

EDITION | 22

In the fall of 2015, we bought a parcel of land that would anchor what is now Addy Farm, and I became the owner of an emu.

Yes. That’s right.

A remarkably large, flightless Australian bird who, from time to time, would make the local paper for breaking free from her enclosure and encountering unsuspecting hikers on the adjacent Appalachian Trail.

She had been left behind to guard the five chickens I had also "inherited."

As the days grew colder, it became clear that this bird was likely wintering over in the structure that, once renovated, would become our future home. About a week later, I found myself sitting in the middle of our local Tractor Supply declaring, “I think we’re trying to solve the wrong problem.”

I had twelve hundred dollars of fencing and water heaters in my cart and still no idea how to feed the damn thing.

We had failed to make sense of the situation before trying to make the right decision.

Did I own an emu? Yes.
Did I feel responsible for her care? Yes.
Did I want to own an emu? Not really.
Did I need to own an emu? No.
Could I rehome the chickens? Yes. Done and done.
Would my husband have spent the time and money building a shelter to appease me? Absolutely.
Did I need him to? No.
Was there another solution? Yes.

Two days later, we coaxed her into a friend’s horse trailer, and off she went to a local bird sanctuary, along with a check to ensure she and her fellow emu friends would be well cared for into their old age.

So often, we jump into making decisions long before we’ve paused to make sense of the situation.

This idea sits at the heart of the work of Dave Snowden, a British organizational theorist whose work spans complexity science, cognitive anthropology, and systems thinking. Snowden’s research revealed that many leadership failures do not stem from poor execution or flawed strategy, but from a more fundamental breakdown in interpretation. Leaders were not miscalculating; they were misreading the nature of the situation itself, applying decision logic suited for stability to environments defined by uncertainty.

To address this, he developed the Cynefin Framework, a sensemaking model designed to help leaders understand what kind of system they are operating in before deciding how to act.

The insight is simple and profound.
Before deciding what to do, we must first understand what is actually happening.

Cynefin is a Welsh word meaning place of belonging, reflecting the idea that decisions are always shaped by the context we are embedded in.

When we skip this step, we solve the wrong problems, spend energy unnecessarily, and create work that never needed to exist in the first place.

When we take the time to make sense of the situation, different options become visible. Often, simpler ones.

A Practical Guide to Sensemaking with Cynefin

Cynefin is most useful when it is treated as a pause, not a categorization exercise.
The goal is not to label the situation perfectly.
The goal is to choose a decision posture that fits reality.

Here’s my take.

Step 1: Pause at the threshold

Before solutions, planning, or debate, pause long enough to recognize that you are standing at a threshold and ask:

What kind of situation are we actually in?

If the conversation has already moved to what should we do, you are likely past the sensemaking moment.

This pause is not about delay. It is about orientation.

Step 2: Listen for clues in the language being used

The nature of the situation often reveals itself in how people speak about it.

• Clear: “We already know how to handle this.”
• Complicated: “We need more analysis or expert input.”
• Complex: “We don’t fully understand this yet.”
• Chaotic: “We need to act now.”
• Disorder: “Everyone has a different opinion.”

Pay attention to friction. Persistent disagreement is often a signal that the context itself has not been adequately named.

Step 3: Ask one orienting question per domain

Rather than debating labels, use questions to test your understanding of the situation.

• Clear: Do established rules or best practices reliably work here?
• Complicated: Would expert analysis meaningfully reduce uncertainty?
• Complex: Will understanding only emerge through action and learning?
• Chaotic: Is immediate action required to prevent harm or instability
• Disorder: Are we talking past one another because we are using different decision logics?
  

The answers usually clarify the context without forcing consensus.

Step 4: Match the decision posture to the domain

This is where Cynefin becomes practical.

• Clear: Apply standards consistently. Optimize for efficiency.
• Complicated: Slow down enough to analyze well. Invite expertise.
• Complex: Run small, safe-to-fail experiments. Learn before scaling.
• Chaotic: Act decisively to stabilize, then reassess.
• Disorder: Restore shared sensemaking before making consequential decisions.
  

Most leadership strain comes not from choosing the wrong option, but from adopting the wrong posture.

Step 5: Revisit the domain as conditions change

Cynefin is not static.

Chaos can stabilize into complexity.
Complexity can harden into clearer patterns.
Clarity can dissolve back into uncertainty.

Returning to sensemaking is not indecision.
It is responsiveness.

Decisions may still be difficult, but they feel grounded rather than forced.
And that matters.

The Emu Test (Unofficial, but Reliable)

If you are spending time, money, or energy solving a problem that feels oddly heavy or over-engineered, pause and ask:

Are we trying to build a better enclosure ...
When what we really need to do is rehome the emu?

Before you jump in.
Before you optimize, analyze, or mobilize.

Ask yourself:

Is there an emu in the room?

Until next time,
With clarity and care,
Courtney